Opinion: The Democratic Curse aka Philippine Elections

Democracy and Toxicity.

Are we having a problem with the election? Or are we electing the problem? 

The Philippine Elections is only a week away. In the Philippines, political issues are part of the regular past-time and on May 9 Filipinos will decide who should lead the government. Premature campaigning from the lowest to the highest public office starts as early as one is voted. Their names and faces are plastered all over the local towns and barangays, the national politicians will take and grab their spotlight from media interviews and tv guesting.  (Or if convenient, an actor-politician resolves those issues easily.)

Photos of the old ballot boxes from here.

Yes, the gift of democracy. 

The Filipinos have even invented a word that probably can be used by other countries as well. 

Trapo. 

A shortened term for 'traditional politician', which is a wordplay that also means a cleaning rag. A wasted piece of cloth. It is usually derogatory than descriptive. 

News headlines are filled by poll-related events. It has become 'toxic' that even social media is used (and abused) for each candidates' gain. This has resulted to some personal attacks via the social media by various rabid supporters and 'trollers.' 

On the latest Pulse Asia surveys1, the controversial Mayor of Davao Duterte is leading at 33%, despite having controversies with his scandalous remarks and now alleged hidden wealth. There are still some 'undecided' voters and some still willing to shift their support at the last minute. But if basing from the previous 2010 presidential survey results, it will be quite tough to beat the odds. Unless a sudden massive shift of support happens in the next few days, Duterte will be the Republic's 16th President.

Then what happens?

The Historical Results

But here's the main issue in the Philippine political scene, especially for the President. Starting from the 1935 Presidential elections, no incumbent political party has won since 1986. That is 30 years ago. No wonder the current administration bet, the supposed 'best' candidate Mar Roxas, is currently lagging in surveys and even from his own political party. Whether that was to be pinpointed to the candidate himself, or him being the standard-bearer of the much-maligned administration due to its failures, then that's another topic altogether. 

It is given that in a democratic type of government, the voice of the people is valued, at least if not only during the elections. The elections will never please everybody. To make something work, you need to get the support of the majority.

Is the system wrong? Are the candidates to blame? Are the voters wrong? Or is the election set up to fail the people, and vice-versa?

Here are some figures from 1935 until 1986, including the number of votes and the winning percentages. I have only chosen to highlight the winner and the closest losing candidate.

* The 1986 elections being the exception wherein the EDSA Revolution took place and elevated  Corazon Aquino to the office.

1935	Manuel L. Quezon	695,332	67.99%	Emilio Aguinaldo	179,349	17.54%
1941	Manuel L. Quezon	812,352	86.91%	Juan Sumulong	70,899	7.58%
1946	Manuel Roxas	1,333,392	55.78%	Sergio Osmeña	1,051,243	43.98%
1949	Elpidio Quirino	1,803,808	50.93%	José P. Laurel	1,318,330	37.22%
1953	Ramon Magsaysay	2,912,992	68.90%	Elpidio Quirino	1,313,991	31.08%
1957	Carlos P. Garcia	2,072,257	41.28%	José Yulo	1,386,829	27.62%
1961	Diosdado Macapagal	3,554,840	55.05%	Carlos P. Garcia	2,902,996	44.95%
1965	Ferdinand Marcos	3,861,324	51.94%	Diosdado Macapagal	3,187,752	42.88%
1969	Ferdinand Marcos	5,017,343	61.47%	Sergio Osmeña, Jr.	3,143,122	38.51%
1981	Ferdinand Marcos	18,309,360	88.02%	Alejo Santos	1,716,449	8.25%
1986*	Ferdinand Marcos	10,807,197	53.62%	Corazon Aquino	9,291,761	46.10%

Here are some points to look out for:

1. Aside from the 1957 results, all the winners garnered at least 50.93% of votes.
2. The highest percentage was 88.02% in 1981 by Marcos.
3. In the 1957 elections, there were 7 presidential candidates, and the margin from the 2nd place is at least 13.6%.

The new 1987 constitution was introduced and the 1992 elections ushered in the multi-party system. This is where the 'winning candidate' is not necessarily the winner by majority. This is democracy in full effect. (That statement can be a rhetorical question, too.)

These are the results from 1992-2010, again with the winner and the closest losing candidate:

1992	Fidel V. Ramos	5,342,521	23.58%	Miriam Defensor Santiago	4,468,173	19.72%
1998	Joseph Estrada	10,722,295	39.86%	Jose de Venecia	4,258,483	15.87%
2004	Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo	12,905,808	39.99%	Fernando Poe, Jr.	11,782,232	36.51%
2010	Benigno Aquino III	15,208,678	42.08%	Joseph Estrada	9,487,837	26.25%

The 'landslide' victory result was in 2010 by the late President Cory Aquino's son, 'Noynoy', with a result of 42%. No other president won by majority since the 1961 elections. The slimmest margin of victory percentage-wise was in 2004 by Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo beating the late movie star Poe by 1.1 Million votes or a difference of 3.4%.

Silent Majority or Noisy Minority?

What do these historical numbers tell us for the future?

At this current multi-party system of democracy, at best 2 out of 3 of the voting population did NOT vote for the current head of state. Support from the Congress will also be a heavy task to gain. It may work for a year, if lucky. But more often than not, people will voice out their problems and blame who else, but the current leader(s) in the office. Regardless if the ruling administration performed or not, people would clamour for change. Well, two separate People Powers removed two presidents already, is that not proof enough?

A typical festive-like local town during elections. Photo from here.

As a headstart, if you call it that, the new President will have to work extra hard to convince the other 60+% of the voting public that things can be done and he or she can be trusted in the first place. It is not a question that 'change' should not only be expected from the leaders of the nation, but also by everyone doing their part as a start.

A nation of 100 Million will be decided by a mere 30-40% of the registered voters.

Is the system wrong?
Are the candidates to blame?
Are the voters wrong?
Is this practice of democracy, the right to vote, set to fail before it even begins?

This is the democratic curse.
And it begins anew on May 9, 2016.

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Sources:
1 http://cnnphilippines.com/news/2016/04/30/Duterte-Marcos-win-Pulse-Asia-survey.html
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philippine_presidential_election
** Photos not mine, credited in links.